Last count in: —
Where the GOP lead needs to be
Statewide, the ballots counted so far work out to —. Republicans need a — ballot lead to pull even and are at —. — of our 8 districts have cleared their line.
Statewide: Attorney General
All of Arizona's early ballots by party, plus today's in-person voters estimated from Maricopa's hourly count, run through our polling.
How voters break
Petersen's margin by group in each poll. Click a heading to open it. Groups under 50 respondents are thin; under 10 are left off.
Statewide ballots by party
Early ballots from each county's latest report. Today's column is estimated from Maricopa's hourly count.
| Party | Early | Today (est.) | Total | Share |
|---|
In the Oct 28–29 poll, voters who had already returned a ballot backed Mayes by —. Voters still planning to vote backed Petersen by —. Today's turnout is where the race closes or doesn't.
Today vs. 2022 and 2024
—
In-person check-ins so far
Maricopa vote centers, cumulative by hour.
Republican edge among them
Republican share minus Democratic share of check-ins, cumulative.
The districts
Each line runs from a Democratic lead on the left to a Republican lead on the right. Lines to clear use a worst-case legislative split, not the AG poll. Open a district for its numbers.
—
—Today, hour by hour
GOP lead after each Maricopa update. The dashed orange line is the line to clear.
How the early vote came in
GOP lead in returned early ballots by report date. Gray is 2022 at the same point.
Ballots by party
Today's column is the posted district count from the Arizona GOP or Data Orbital where there is one (LD 2, 4, 9 and 13). Otherwise it's estimated: Maricopa's hourly turnout for each party, applied to this district's voters who hadn't mailed a ballot.
| Party | Early | Today (est.) | Total | Share |
|---|
Every other district
The same math and the same worst-case split, run for the districts outside our eight. Early ballots through Oct 30 from Data Orbital. LD 1, 6 and 7 are left out because their reports count by county, not district.
| District | Counties | Ballots in | GOP lead | Line to clear | Gap | Net R ballots needed |
|---|
The line to clear
Districts: a worst-case legislative split, set by us rather than the AG poll. Republicans vote 90% for the Republican, Democrats 97% for the Democrat, and independents break 60/40 Democratic. Run a district's ballots through that and find the Republican lead where the two sides come out even. That's the line, and the poll buttons don't move it. Statewide AG: using the —, registered Republicans split —, Democrats — and independents —. Run the state's ballots through those and you get the statewide line. The Oct 28–29 poll is 500 likely voters (±4.2). The Oct 18–20 and early October polls are 550 each.
Today's votes
Stealth Analytics posts Maricopa vote-center check-ins by party every hour. We turn each party's count into a turnout rate among voters who hadn't returned an early ballot, then apply it district by district. Where the Arizona GOP or Data Orbital posts a district's own in-person count (so far LD 2, 4, 9 and 13), we use that instead. LD 16 and LD 17 sit mostly outside Maricopa, so theirs are borrowed; LD 23 is partly measured.
What it can't see
Early ballots dropped off this weekend or today aren't counted until the counties report them. Registration isn't a vote. And one fixed split sets every district's line, so a strong local candidate won't show up here.
Where the numbers come from
District early returns: Republican Party of Arizona precinct briefs through Nov 2. Statewide returns, registration and earlier report dates: Data Orbital. Hourly in-person counts: @StealthPolling, @AZGOP and @Data_Orbital on X; 2022 and 2024 comparisons from Data Orbital. Splits: three statewide AG polls (Oct 28–29, Oct 18–20, early October).
Election Day · November 3, 2026
Where the GOP lead needs to be
Our live district tracker for the Attorney General race, updated every hour until the polls close.
Open the tracker